Stark Regional Differences Persist in Second Quarter

24 Nov 2024

Specialist UK Mortgages...

Stark Regional Differences Persist in Second Quarter

All UK regions see house prices grow in second quarter, but pace of growth is slowing
Prices in parts of Northern Ireland are now on a par with London, but growth has dropped from the all-time record high of the first quarter
Average house price for first-time buyers in London approaching £250,000
As in the first quarter, prices grew faster in the South of England than in the North

UK fact file

Average house price: £181,810

Annual percentage increase: 10.2%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2.1%

Most expensive region: London

Least expensive region: North

Region with strongest price growth: Northern Ireland

Region with weakest price growth: North West

Quarterly index – Headlines	Q2 2007	Q1 2007
Average price in quarter	£181,810	£175,554
Annual change	10.2%	9.5%
Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted)	2.1%	2.3%

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Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“Prices increased by at least 5% in every region of the UK over the past 12 months, with 5 out of 13 regions recording double-digit growth. Each region also saw prices rise from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. As per the first quarter of 2007, Northern Ireland and London led the market during April-June, with annual price growth reaching 54% and 15.7% respectively. In contrast, the North West and West Midlands saw the weakest annual change in house prices, of 5.8% and 5.9% respectively.

“At a national level, the annual rate of house price growth increased slightly from the first quarter, rising from 9.5% to 10.2%. This masked a slowing of the quarterly pace of growth for the second quarter in a row, from 2.3% to 2.1%. In fact, the acceleration of annual house price inflation was in part driven by an interim period of relative weakness in the second quarter of 2006. Even London and Northern Ireland – the two most buoyant regional markets – saw the quarterly pace of house price inflation slow.

“In England, the North-South gap that began opening up last year remained significant in the second quarter . House price growth in the South outpaced that in the North by 5.6 percentage points. Within England, London saw the fastest pace of price growth by a considerable margin. In fact, annual growth in London outpaced the average for England as a whole by 6.1 percentage points. The regions surrounding the capital all showed double-digit price growth, perhaps indicating some ripple effects from London’s strength. Although the quarterly pace of house price inflation in London slowed from 4.5% to 3.1%, the annual pace of growth accelerated from 14.3% to 15.7%. This contrasts with relatively soft annual growth of 5.8% in the North West, the region with the weakest growth for the second quarter in a row. Other regions of relative weakness include the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, and the North.

“The speed of house price growth in Northern Ireland remains astonishing and well above that of other UK regions, although it looks like the market there may have peaked in the first quarter of the year. Over the past twelve months, prices in Northern Ireland have risen by 54%, down from an all-time record high rate of 57.6% in the first quarter. Recent growth rates appear unsustainable, and it would be healthy for the market to see some cooling. Average earnings in Northern Ireland are still lower than the UK average, suggesting that affordability is deteriorating fairly rapidly and that the market here could be more vulnerable than in other regions.

“Scotland maintained its strong performance in the second quarter, with only slight signs of cooling. Prices increased by 14.7% over the past 12 months, the third fastest rate of growth in the UK and the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Even after the robust growth seen over the last year, Scotland is still one of the least expensive markets in the UK, second only to the North of England.

“The Welsh housing market showed some re-acceleration in the second quarter. House prices are 7.4% higher than this time last year and 2.6% higher than in the previous quarter. A typical property in Wales is now worth just under £155,000, more than £10,000 higher than at this time last year.

Regional Headlines

Perthshire & Stirling

£159,467	158%	12%	10%
Renfrewshire & Inverclyde	£163,982	165%	12%	14%
South Lanarkshire	£142,382	152%	6%	12%
Southern Scotland	£140,723	176%	16%	11%

Northern Ireland (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
City of Belfast	£300,229	403%	61%	61%
Northern Ireland (North East)	£230,736	324%	45%	60%
Northern Ireland (South East)	£288,252	396%	46%	78%
Northern Ireland (West)	£188,198	245%	36%	36%

Wales (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Cardiff	£207,410	203%	4%	6%
Mid & West Wales	£160,462	219%	3%	5%
North Wales	£174,664	216%	9%	3%
South Wales (East)	£172,189	217%	8%	10%
South Wales (West)	£159,805	197%	8%	7%

North (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Cumbria	£152,391	177%	9%	2%
Durham	£149,545	182%	9%	3%
Northumberland	£163,944	177%	5%	3%
Teeside	£158,577	192%	8%	3%
Tyne and Wear	£163,870	204%	2%	2%

North West (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Cheshire	£187,598	182%	4%	1%
City of Manchester	£210,283	268%	8%	8%
Greater Manchester	£171,093	190%	4%	3%
Lancashire	£157,876	194%	7%	5%
Merseyside	£161,463	199%	4%	4%
Warrington & Halton	£167,969	186%	6%	4%

Yorkshire & Humberside (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Bradford	£170,773	214%	10%	8%
East Yorkshire	£156,824	203%	2%	3%
Leeds	£196,547	197%	10%	9%

Region	Average Price	Quarterly % change	Annual % change
North	£134,523	2.3%	6.3%
Yorkshire & Humberside	£155,159	0.7%	6.1%
North West	£158,614	1.7%	5.8%
East Midlands	£156,512	1.5%	6.8%
West Midlands	£164,679	1.6%	5.9%
East Anglia	£181,409	1.3%	7.7%
Outer South East	£212,811	2.7%	10.4%
Outer Metropolitan	£253,323	2.0%	10.7%
London	£292,409	3.1%	15.7%
South West	£200,940	1.7%	9.3%
Wales	£154,969	2.6%	7.4%
Scotland	£148,593	2.9%	14.7%
Northern Ireland	£225,447	7.8%	54.0%
UK	£181,810	2.1%	10.2%

Major Towns and Cities

5 hottest regional towns/cities

Rank	Town / City	Annual % Change	Average Price
1	Belfast	61%	£300,229
2	Aberdeen	35%	£218,152
3	Sunderland	24%	£181,104
4	Sheffield	23%	£202,691
5	Bristol	18%	£242,876

5 coolest regional towns/cities

Rank	Town / City	Annual % Change	Average Price
1	Liverpool	0%	£159,112
2	Newcastle	3%	£181,104
3	Birmingham	3%	£182,232
4	Northampton	4%	£184,656
5	Nottingham	4%	£149,049

Scotland

Average house price: £148,593

Annual percentage increase: 14.7%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2.9%

Most expensive area: Edinburgh City

Least expensive area: Southern Scotland

Area with strongest price growth: Aberdeen City

Area with weakest price growth: Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire

The Scottish housing market broadly maintained the rates of growth seen during the first quarter. The annual rate of house price inflation fell back slightly to 14.7%, from 15.2% during January-March. The quarterly rate of house price growth was 2.9%, marginally above the first quarter level, but below the growth rates seen throughout 2006. It nonetheless remains well above the average for the whole of the UK. In spite of house price inflation outperforming the UK average for nearly four years, the price of a typical house is still about £33,000 less than the average price for the UK, making Scotland the second cheapest place to buy a house behind the Northern region of England.

Price developments continue to be characterised by wide disparities within Scotland. Edinburgh remains by far the most expensive place to own a home, but Aberdeen is catching up with price growth of nearly 35% over the past twelve months. Southern Scotland remains the cheapest region, with the price of an average home over £100,000 below that in Edinburgh.

In line with the trend we expect for the UK overall, the rate of house price inflation in Scotland should cool later in 2007. This slowdown should follow from the pressures of the recent increases in base rates, expectations of further monetary tightening and low growth in take-home pay. Nonetheless, price growth in Scotland still has quite a bit of momentum and will probably stay above the UK average over the coming quarters.

Click here for Scotland’s sub-regional data

Wales

Average house price: £154,969

Annual percentage increase: 7.4%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2.6%

Most expensive area: Cardiff

Least expensive area: South Wales (West)

Area with strongest price growth: South Wales (East)

Area with weakest price growth: North Wales

The Welsh housing market re-accelerated from a relatively weak first quarter, with particular strength in South Wales. Even so, the 7.4% annual rate of growth is considerably below the UK average, and this has been the case for the past four quarters. Compared to the previous quarter, prices rose by 2.6%, a relatively strong performance on a national comparison.

Within Wales, South Wales (East) saw double digit growth, while the four other sub-regions all saw single-digit growth. North Wales was the most subdued, with growth of only 3% over the past year. Despite only modest growth, Cardiff remains the most expensive place to buy in Wales, and is the only local authority where the price of an average house exceeds £200,000. At £168,317, the average house in Swansea is comparably inexpensive.

Click here for Wales sub-regional data

North of England includes Northern, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and the East and West Midlands regions. South of England includes East Anglia, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, Greater London and South West

Northern Ireland

Average house price: £225,447

Annual percentage increase: 54%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 7.8%

Most expensive area: City of Belfast

Least expensive area: Northern Ireland (West)

Area with strongest price growth: Northern Ireland (South East)

Area with weakest price growth: Northern Ireland (West)

The Northern Irish housing market is still on a roll, but it appears that the first quarter of 2007 may have represented the peak. House prices are a staggering 54% higher than a year ago, but this is down from 57.6% in the first quarter and represents the first drop in annual growth since early 2005. The first quarter figure represented the fastest annual pace of growth ever recorded in the Nationwide Regional House Price Index since it began in 1973, helping to make Northern Ireland one of the most expensive regions in the UK. Prices are 7.8% higher on a quarterly basis, following double-digit rates of inflation during each of the previous four quarters. The ongoing positive effects of the “peace dividend” are clearly still being felt, boosting the local economy and housing market. The price of an average house in Belfast now exceeds £300,000, putting the average cost of homeownership there on a par with London.

The first indications of a slowdown in the most recent figures should come as no surprise and are welcome from a longer-term perspective. Despite the benefits of peace and the strong local economy, the rates of house price growth over the past year are not sustainable and the market will eventually need to settle down somewhat to ensure long-term stability. Should it fail to do so, this would indicate an excess of speculative buying and raise questions about the vulnerability of the market to economic shocks.

Click here for Northern Ireland’s sub-regional data

London

Average house price: £292,409

Annual percentage increase: 15.7%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 3.1%

Most expensive borough: Westminster

Least expensive borough: Barking and Dagenham

Area with strongest price growth: Islington

Area with weakest price growth: Bexley

London remains the clear leader of the English housing market, with annual house price growth five percentage points higher than in any other English region during the second quarter. At 15.7%, the annual pace of house price inflation is the highest it has been since the first quarter of 2003. Some initial signs of cooling are apparent though, and this is reflected in the deceleration of the quarterly growth rate to 3.1%, from over 4% in each of the previous two quarters. Even so, this is the fastest pace of quarterly growth in England, and is second only to Northern Ireland for the UK as a whole.

The recent strength of London’s housing market stems from a variety of factors. On the demand side, buying interest has been driven primarily by the buoyancy of employment and income growth in the City of London, as well as a steady stream of foreign buyers in prime areas. In fact, about half of all buyers of houses worth over £2m are thought to come from overseas. The significant under-supply of houses in London represents the other side of the equation supporting price growth, and this is a longer-term structural factor that is unlikely to go away quickly. The inner London boroughs have generally seen the strongest growth, with prices rising by around 20% over the past 12 months. Islington and Camden stand out with particularly strong performances during the second quarter, seeing prices rise by 35% and 26% respectively over the past year. By contrast, the outer London boroughs have seen more moderate growth of closer to 10%.

Looking ahead, economic fundamentals and foreign capital inflows will continue to lend support to prices in London. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to assume that affordability constraints will result in a deceleration of price growth later in 2007. Increasing interest rates – which many now expect to reach 6% by the end of the year – should also contribute to a cooling of the market. Even if house price inflation in the capital decelerates, affordability will remain stretched, particularly for first-time buyers. In fact, the price of an average house for first time buyers in London is now approaching £250,000, nearly £100,000 higher than the UK average for this market segment.

Click here for London’s sub-regional data

England

Average house price: £199,178

Annual percentage increase: 9.6%

Quarterly change (seasonally adjusted): 2%

Most expensive area: London

Least expensive area: North

Area with strongest price growth: London

Area with weakest price growth: North West

The second quarter saw house prices in England increase by 2% from the previous quarter, which is slightly down from a pace of 2.4% in the previous quarter. However, weakness in the second quarter of 2006 led the annual pace of growth to pick up from 8.7% to 9.6%, bringing the average price of a house to just under £200,000. Over the last twelve months, house prices have increased at a rate of £48 per day in England as a whole and £109 per day in London.

house price

Contrary to the pattern seen in 2002-2004, price gains in the South are now outpacing those in the North. The South of England saw prices grow by 11.7% during the past year, easily outperforming growth of 6.1% in the North. This brings the average price of a house in the South to £237,580, or one and a half times the average price of £155,626 observed in the North. Yet although the market is softer in the North overall, there are some pockets of relative strength. Sheffield and Sunderland, for example, saw prices increase by more than 20% over the past 12 months.

Inner London is clearly the epicentre of the current house price boom in England, with price growth generally decreasing the further one gets from the capital. The regions surrounding the capital appear to be benefiting from the ripple effects of a strong London economy and housing market. The Outer Metropolitan and Outer South East regions are both seeing a double-digit pace of annual price growth. These effects, however, begin to fizzle out once one reaches East Anglia, the South West or the West Midlands, where price growth is in the single digits.

Although the South West saw only single-digit house price inflation in the second quarter, there are some considerable differences in price growth within the sub-regions. Bristol, for example, has seen prices increase by 18% over the past twelve months, bringing the average price of a house there to £242,876. In contrast, sub-regions such as Cornwall, Poole, Swindon and Somerset have seen growth in a more moderate 6-8% range. The most expensive place to own a house in the South West is Bath, where the average price is £254,391, 13% higher than a year ago.

In line with our forecast for the rest of the UK, price growth in England should decelerate in the second half of 2007. In the capital this process will take somewhat longer, as the market still has some residual momentum and currently benefits from some supporting factors not present in the rest of England.

Source: Knight Frank Residential Research. London Residential Development Review 2007.

Sub-regional analysis
Just as the national data disguises differences in house prices throughout the UK, looking at the regions disguises movements in local house prices. To look at these developments more closely the areas can be divided into sub-regions.
Scotland (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Aberdeen City	£218,152	173%	36%	35%
Aberdeenshire & Moray	£153,553	162%	23%	28%
Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire	£149,092	156%	12%	7%
Dundee & Angus	£147,893	171%	12%	18%
Edinburgh City	£248,568	213%	11%	10%
Fife	£141,888	179%	12%	11%
Glasgow City	£169,525	166%	10%	8%
Highlands & Islands	£150,542	165%	12%	8%
Lothian & Falkirk	£156,212	140%	9%	8%
p>North Lincolnshire	£138,921	192%	5%	6%
North Yorkshire	£200,337	205%	4%	5%
Sheffield	£202,691	259%	14%	23%
South Yorkshire	£149,012	192%	2%	1%
West Yorkshire	£164,118	177%	5%	4%
York	£220,708	212%	13%	11%

East Anglia (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Cambridgeshire	£205,684	182%	7%	6%
Norfolk	£184,390	220%	11%	7%
Peterborough	£175,888	229%	4%	11%
Suffolk	£193,178	209%	9%	9%

East Midlands (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Derby	£166,905	189%	9%	4%
Derbyshire	£168,324	198%	4%	7%
Leicestershire	£181,873	190%	6%	5%
Mid Lincolnshire	£154,978	206%	6%	4%
Northampton Town	£184,656	201%	7%	4%
Northamptonshire	£179,071	198%	4%	6%
Nottingham	£149,049	190%	-2%	4%
Nottinghamshire	£161,443	184%	5%	3%
South Lincolnshire	£166,467	213%	10%	8%

West Midlands (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Birmingham	£182,232	212%	5%	3%
Coventry	£172,786	207%	3%	7%
Greater Birmingham	£176,300	178%	3%	6%
Herefordshire	£196,029	201%	17%	9%
Shropshire	£182,004	191%	6%	9%
Staffordshire	£165,882	175%	5%	4%
Warwickshire	£199,341	190%	5%	5%
Worcestershire	£195,338	178%	3%	6%

South West (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Bath	£254,391	235%	12%	13%
Bournemouth	£248,673	249%	13%	11%
Bristol	£242,876	287%	13%	18%
Cheltenham	£238,473	216%	11%	9%
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	£212,954	265%	10%	7%
Dorset	£236,845	200%	6%	6%
Gloucestershire	£210,066	191%	12%	12%
North Devon	£200,675	247%	4%	5%
Plymouth	£180,809	235%	6%	9%
Poole	£246,014	215%	9%	8%
Somerset	£200,541	215%	8%	6%
South Devon	£214,319	225%	7%	6%
South Gloucestershire	£228,239	239%	12%	14%
Swindon	£194,243	181%	8%	7%
Wiltshire	£217,423	190%	5%	7%

Outer South East (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Basingstoke & Deane	£241,193	161%	4%	7%
Brighton & Hove	£292,791	288%	12%	11%
East Kent	£200,325	212%	7%	6%
East Sussex	£222,753	221%	4%	5%
Isle of Wight	£196,707	246%	-2%	1%
Mid Hampshire	£260,972	195%	9%	12%
Milton Keynes & Aylesbury	£234,585	213%	9%	8%
New Forest	£253,785	201%	3%	11%
North Essex	£214,679	211%	8%	8%
Oxfordshire	£259,414	187%	12%	12%
Portsmouth Area	£194,621	193%	4%	5%
Southampton Area	£219,687	196%	6%	7%
West Berkshire	£264,275	170%	9%	12%
West Sussex (South)	£250,796	223%	10%	14%

Outer Metropolitan (click here to return to commentary)

Nationwide Sub-Regions	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Bedford & Mid Bedfordshire	£207,577	204%	9%	10%
Bracknell Forest	£258,783	177%	8%	11%
Central Kent	£242,152	199%	9%	11%
East Surrey	£289,843	180%	8%	11%
Hart & Rushmoor	£258,784	182%	17%	14%
Hertfordshire	£266,734	193%	9%	9%
Luton & South Bedfordshire	£202,580	198%	7%	6%
Medway	£189,394	198%	9%	8%
North Surrey	£306,366	187%	12%	13%
Reading	£250,133	208%	14%	14%
Slough	£257,817	201%	8%	9%
South Buckinghamshire & Chilterns	£291,505	174%	12%	11%
South Essex	£233,786	207%	8%	8%
St Albans	£337,297	189%	11%	12%
West Kent	£237,888	188%	5%	4%
West Surrey	£301,633	172%	13%	11%
West Sussex (North)	£259,232	201%	13%	11%
Windsor & Maidenhead	£301,419	171%	14%	12%
Wokingham	£276,432	180%	12%	15%

London (click here to return to commentary)

London Boroughs	Price in 2007 Q2	% change over 10 years	Annual Chg - Last quarter	Annual Chg - This quarter
Barking and Dagenham	£204,367	230%	14%	9%
Barnet	£305,332	210%	8%	8%
Bexley	£222,028	191%	8%	7%
Brent	£327,249	261%	10%	18%
Bromley	£258,149	201%	13%	11%
Camden	£513,685	236%	27%	26%
Croydon	£244,680	222%	10%	12%
Ealing	£345,206	255%	10%	17%
Enfield	£284,342	230%	8%	16%
Greenwich	£267,074	258%	22%	12%
Hackney	£356,216	314%	25%	19%
Hammersmith and Fulham	£472,939	211%	19%	21%
Haringey	£330,145	268%	12%	10%
Harrow	£289,077	207%	10%	15%
Havering	£222,313	198%	8%	10%
Hillingdon	£271,804	214%	9%	10%
Hounslow	£295,104	237%	11%	10%
Islington	£456,238	321%	26%	35%
Kingston upon Thames	£324,938	224%	17%	20%
Lambeth	£341,041	279%	16%	18%
Lewisham	£278,164	281%	17%	18%
Merton	£344,703	250%	16%	17%
Newham	£273,224	377%	16%	20%
Redbridge	£270,323	259%	14%	12%
Richmond upon Thames	£373,216	196%	11%	11%

Southwark	£358,819	298%	21%	21%
Sutton	£258,300	202%	10%	13%
Tower Hamlets	£360,125	230%	18%	18%
Waltham Forest	£267,510	291%	12%	14%
Wandsworth	£412,130	247%	21%	21%
Westminster	£589,101	249%	25%	15%

Notes:

Prices differ to main Nationwide index because sub-regional analysis is based on a different methodology. Sub-regional analysis is based on the average price per square foot in each of the sub-regions. This is grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide’s main index, this methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification. Because of the different methodologies the two series are not directly comparable.
House price growth based on prices in the last two quarters compared with the same period in earlier years

Text in blue indicates hyperlinks to move throughout this document.

Fionnuala Earley                                                          Katie Harper
Chief Economist                                                           Media Relations Manager
Tel: 01793 656370                                                      Tel: 01793 656215
fionnuala.earley@nationwide.co.uk                                  katie.harper@nationwide.co.uk

Notes:

Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on our website: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/
Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly series are seasonally adjusted using data since 1973. The seasonal adjustment is recalculated quarterly and may lead to revisions.
The price changes in the sub regional, and local authority tables are based on the price per unit area of the properties in the sample. Samples are smaller than at a regional level and figures should not be relied upon for any critical application. Figures are not directly comparable with mix-adjusted indices.
The Nationwide House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk.

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